🔗 Share this article

New Yorkers will learn the identity of their new city leader this Tuesday, in a race that will decide who runs and protects the country's largest city at a time when the former president has vowed to deploy military troops to the urban center.

Against that backdrop, New York has experienced a race for mayor that has pitted two distinctly opposing Democratic figures against one another. The contest has turned into an acrimonious showdown, marked by alleged racial bias and Islamophobia, but it is the political differences between the two main contenders that could have major implications for how the Democratic party fares in next year's midterm elections.

The Progressive Challenger

In the progressive corner is Zohran Mamdani, the 34-year-old progressive candidate whose rapid ascent and people-powered movement has attracted international attention. Representing the old guard is Andrew Cuomo, the former New York governor now campaigning independently – and benefiting from the support of wealthy contributors and corporations.

With days to go, it is the progressive, the one-time underdog who beat Cuomo in the party primary who is solidly positioned as the frontrunner. Mamdani, who has run on a platform of affordability and promised to halt rent increases for about two million city residents, has outpaced Cuomo by significant margins in every poll taken in the fall, and it is very much the progressive's election to lose.

A Bitter Contest

Yet, Cuomo, who stepped down as the state's leader in recent years amid accusations of misconduct, has made it clear he will battle to the finish, and not necessarily in an above-the-belt fashion. He has criticized Mamdani's objectives as unachievable, and in recent days chuckled along as a radio host made anti-Muslim comments about the candidate, who is a Muslim. Two weeks ago, the independent was widely condemned as bigoted after posting an AI-generated ad that included a slew of racist stereotypes and showed his opponent freeing a group of criminals.

It's been a rather grubby conclusion to an election that could be key to the path that the Democratic party, floundering in its response to Trump's authoritarian grabs, adopts in the near future.

National Implications

If the progressive wins convincingly, the establishment party leaders who have declined to support his bid will be compelled to address a message that has resonated with Americans' anger at economic disparity, soaring price rises and the establishment. It would be hard for the Senate leader and Hakeem Jeffries not to embrace at least some of Mamdani's progressive proposals about affordability, given the newcomer has generated an excitement within the party arguably not witnessed since Bernie Sanders ran for president in 2016.

Conversely, if Cuomo, who had been expected to win easily in the June primary, achieve a remarkable riches-to-rags-to-riches victory, it could reinforce the party's current model of considered, lackluster opposition – a strategy that has infuriated the party base. A New York rejection of the progressive's progressive, positive message could convince party leaders that the best plan is to remain in the center – even as surveys show the current iteration of the party is widely disliked nationwide.

Voter Enthusiasm

Voters in New York seem to prefer the Mamdani vision. Surveys show that his backers are far more enthusiastic about their candidate than Cuomo backers, something that has been apparent throughout the campaign. The candidate's engaging content on social media, his optimistic vision for the city and his readiness to actually get out and connect with voters in the metropolis has attracted an force of more than 50,000 supporters, many of them youth or new participants.

Negative Tactics

Yet, the former governor, 67, continues to fight. And with the risks against him, the former governor has resorted to ugly messaging in recent weeks.

Following extensive launching various attacks at his opponent to see what might stick, Cuomo has narrowed his focus on attacking the candidate directly. He has called Mamdani, who was of Ugandan origin to South Asian heritage, an "radical", and appeared on Fox Business for an interview with a rightwing host, where the candidate claimed New York “will not survive” Mamdani as mayor. It reached a nadir last week, when the former governor laughed along and said “that’s another problem” after a broadcaster said Mamdani would “cheer” another terrorist incident.

Political Landscape

This strategy echoes much of what Trump, who has sent the military reserves to Washington DC and warned to take similar action to New York, has said about the progressive, and maybe that shouldn’t come as a surprise. A group of wealthy residents, including some who contributed to Trump in the last presidential race, have invested heavily into trying to elect Cuomo elected, as other powerful voices have urged Curtis Sliwa to withdraw from the contest.

Political Histories

For the his team, and his wealthy backers, are worried, it should not have reached to this. When Mamdani, one of one hundred fifty state legislators, started his mayoral bid in last year, few had heard of him, and in reality, few even noticed.

Cuomo, by comparison, eased his way into the contest in this year and became the immediate frontrunner. He was the political heavyweight who seemingly held every edge. The quintessential establishment figure, he had married a Kennedy and worked in Bill Clinton’s administration. He assumed office as New York governor in over a decade ago, seventeen years after his parent, Mario Cuomo, stepped down from the identical role.

Mamdani, who was elected to the state legislature in recently, does not have the comparable background. But his dedication to providing free buses and free childcare – along with the rent control promise – offer a more positive vision of the future than his opponent's pessimistic predictions about “mayhem” and rising criminal activity, and his promise to hire more police officers.

Recent Challenges

Nevertheless, the candidate has faced some challenges in the final phase, after video emerged suggesting him implying the New York police department and the IDF were intertwined.

“We have to make clear that when the pressure of the NYPD is on your neck, it’s been laced by the IDF,” the candidate said in the clip, filmed at a Democratic Socialists of America convention in 2023. The progressive, a longtime critic of Israel who has said the country is committing genocide in Gaza, indicated he was criticizing cooperative programs between the city police and Israeli forces.

Emotional Response

As the race closes, Mamdani appears to have won sympathy and support, however, for his response to Cuomo’s increasing rhetoric.

Mamdani addressed the independent's 9/11 remarks in an heartfelt recording. In it, the candidate recalled how, when he first ran for the legislature, a family member advised to him that he did not have to tell people about his Muslim faith. It was a lesson, Mamdani said, that many Muslim New Yorkers had been told “again and again”: “That security could only be found in the shadows of our community. That it is in those hidden spaces alone where followers of Islam could express their full identities, and that if we were to emerge from those seclusion, then it is in those shadows that we must leave our faith.”

Addressing the behavior of Cuomo and Sliwa, who has claimed Mamd